« RESFEST 2004 | Main | Austin City Limits Festival » Bush Blowout? (Updated 9/17/04)This is weird: I look at the Drudge Report, and I see a headline screaming GALLUP SHOWS BUSH BLOWOUT: 14 POINT LEAD OVER KERRY. Then I go to the Gallup site, and I can find no evidence of this 14 point lead. Is Drudge just making stuff up? Update: National Business Review has a piece with a link to the Gallup poll Drudge mentioned, which says that Bush leads Kerry by 13 points among likely voters; 8 points among registered voters. jon posted this at 11:11 PM |
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Jon,
When I clicked through the link you gave the headline said only 13 not 14 points and when I checked out the headline link I got this url:
http://www.usatoday.com/news/politicselections/nation/president/2004-09-17-gallup-poll_x.htm?POE=NEWISVA
Very scary if those numbers hold.......
Posted by: Bobby Lilly | September 17, 2004 1:50 AM
But Pew and Harris both show only a 1% difference between Kerry and Bush. Which goes to show...what?
Posted by: fig | September 17, 2004 12:21 PM
Jon,
According to Joe Consason in Friday'a Salon Kerry is rising in the polls which is the opposite direction Drudge was reporting:
"The new Harris Interactive/Wall Street Journal poll, completed on Sept. 13, shows Kerry with 48 percent, Bush with 47 percent and Ralph Nader with 2 percent. Those results were nearly identical to the last Harris poll, taken before the Republican Convention, when Kerry was ahead by 1 point. The most noticeable shift in this poll's results is that the 10-point lead Bush enjoyed last June is gone. More than half of the respondents think Bush "doesn't deserve to be reelected [sic]."
The most recent poll by the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press shows the Bush lead falling precipitously during the past week. Between Sept. 8 and Sept. 10, Bush was ahead of Kerry by 54 to 38 among "likely voters" -- but between Sept. 11 and Sept. 14, that gap diminished to Bush 47 versus Kerry 46."
Here's the link to the article for anyone interested in the full story or links to the polls themselves:
http://www.salon.com/opinion/conason/2004/09/17/polls/
Posted by: Bobby Lilly | September 17, 2004 2:22 PM
I don't know where the Gallup numbers came from, but they do clearly seem out of sync with the other polls. I'm not sure I trust their methods for determining who the "likely voters" are going to be...
Posted by: Jon Lebkowsky | September 19, 2004 11:00 AM
Jon,
You are not alone in your suspicions about the Gallup data ;-). Here's Ruy Teixeira's analysis of the situation in the 9-22-04 Public Opinion Watch on the Center for American Progress website.
He writes, " I think the case against the Gallup LV data looks rock solid. In my view, it's time for them to drop reporting these data because they are highly likely to give an inaccurate picture of the state of the race and, by doing so—especially given the high profile of Gallup's polls—unfairly pump up one side of the race and demoralize the other. That doesn't seem acceptable to me." And presents a strong case against them. You can find his article at the link below.
http://www.americanprogress.org/site/pp.asp?c=biJRJ8OVF&b=191162
Posted by: Bobby Lilly | September 23, 2004 5:39 PM