« Journalists vs Bloggers again? | Main | "WiFi as urban renewal" » OilIan Gilfillan posts a good analysis of the impact of oil price increases as shortages grow worse. Nobody's dealing with the consumption problem, but the market will have its effect. The transport and airline industries would take serious strain. Investment in renewables and nuclear (I talked about the high road of renewables versus the low road of nuclear in my post George Monbiot and the looming energy crisis) is lagging, so the effects cannot be other than a recession. This recession would hit developing, oil-dependent countries hardest. New technologies would first appear in developed countries, meaning that there would be shortages in developing countries, and of course exchange rate fluctuations would again hit developing countries hardest.On the other hand – Some positive effects would ensue. Local goods would be more attractive as they gain a greater relative competitive advantage. A Cuban-style model (where urban farming boomed after Soviet funds dried up) would ensue, while American-style suburbs would become less sustainable as it becomes less feasible to commute long distances, and ship goods in from afar. The eventual decrease in oil consumption can only have good effects on the planet's health. jon posted this at 11:28 PM |
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