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Glenn Smith on the (cough cough) progressive elite

It could just be that the progressive elite inside the Beltway are idiots wrong about some things. Glenn Smith is onto 'em, though. [Link]

Another problem touched on or made more visible by George [Lakoff] but not addressed directly: most political opinion methodology sucks. It sucks because it's overdetermined from the beginning. An example? Post 9/11 and through the 2002 cycle every smart pollster we had said, "Go with Bush on the war. The people support him. They'll kill you if you oppose him." So, we dutifully dressed Bush in a Military Uniform. We tried to take it back in 2004, but it was too late.

Now, few Americans (beyond Democratic loyalists) were going to reject Bush's propaganda unless some voices of leadership gave them an alternative. No alternative, they go with the president. But the pollsters say, "Don't give the people an alternative." Who could be surprised that a Midwestern voice asking a poll question on the telephone does not count as a voice of authority?

This is as close as we got to opposing Bush. An unknown caller with a neutral accent asked a respondent on the phone: "Do you strongly agree, agree, disagree or strongly disagree with the following statement: A war in Iraq will distract from the effort to find those responsible for 9/11, waste thousands of American lives, and bog the country down in a war it cannot win while making it easier for the terrorists to recruit more terrorists?"

Meanwhile, the President's on television saying: "I'm going it. Saddam dead or alive. Cover my back." Who's the respondent gonna follow?

jon posted this at 10:00 PM
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