The world is so unbalanced (if not spinning out of control); it's a hopeful sign that Microsoft is acquiring Yahoo, potentially creating a balance for Google's net dominance. I'd rather see Godzilla fight a worthy opponent, a Megalon or Mothra, than stomp puny humans as they flee. [Link]
Food prices soarNot really news to most of us: food prices are increasing. [Link]
Marie Thompson, a mother from Brooklyn with a couple of kids in tow at the grocery store, said she spends hundreds of dollars a week on groceries, including two gallons of milk.
"It seems to me that I spend more and more every week on food," said Thompson. "It's hard, because I have three children at home so there are five of us to feed. Beef is very expensive. The milk is very expensive. Even the butter has gone up."
Even with gasoline prices soaring, milk still tops gas prices. The nationwide average for a gallon of whole milk is $3.80, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. That dwarfs the nationwide average of $2.99 for a gallon of unleaded, according to AAA.
(Marsha and I used to spend $10 a week on groceries... in the 1970s.
The slow to clue business world is discovering what some of us already knew very well, that older people are online – in fact, "the number of Internet users who are older than 55 is roughly the same as those who are aged 18 to 34, according to Nielsen/NetRatings, a market research firm." I've had discussions in the past with net.biz "experts" who were adamant in their belief that older people aren't and won't be common in cyberspace – the argument being that they just can't figure out the technology, usually based on anecdotal evidence. It might be harder to adopt for folks who didn't grow up with the tech. It wasn't a problem for me, but I'm, er, unusual. But did you really think that, with so much happening online, that the grannies wouldn't go there? [Link]
...venture capitalists and entrepreneurs have been slow to embrace the interests of older Internet users, said Susan Ayers Walker, a freelance technology journalist for AARP and founder of SmartSilvers Alliance, which offers consultant services to businesses looking to connect with older consumers.Home Price Bubble, Toil and Trouble
She said that Silicon Valley investors have seen themselves as eternally youthful, and identified with ever-new gadgets. But they are starting to accept their age — and to invest in it.
“They’ve all got high blood pressure,” she said. “They’re starting to understand their age group — they’re living it.”
eFInance Directory has a good, and disconcerting, article about "The Dangerous Disconnect Between Home Prices and Fundamentals." They predict that home prices will fall to pre-boom levels. [Link]
Although the disconnect between home prices and home sales was not present during the housing boom, it most certainly is now. The public has either lost interest or simply can't afford to buy into the current housing market. Home sales have slowed nationally, and are down significantly in cities within California, Florida, Nevada, Michigan and Ohio.
As a result, supply has now exceeded demand in most areas. It would take several months, and in some cases years, to sell all of the homes that are currently on the market. Yet, home prices are staying level for the most part - for now. If sales do not pick up soon, home prices will most definitely begin to fall.
Economists study eBay
From eBay, economists are learning interesting lessons about how people spend their money. The results they're seeing are not always rational. [Link]
Most economists assume these kinds of auctions are largely immune to the passions and unpredictabilities of ravenous bidders, she says. Simple bargain hunting, they hope, would bring out our inner homo economicus, someone who acts in their self-interest to get the best deal possible.
No such luck, she says.
Ms. Malmendier tracked 166 auctions offering CashFlow 101, a personal-finance-themed board game. During the seven-month trial, the game's designer sold the box set on his website for $195.
Meanwhile, eBay sellers usually offered an opening price of about $45 and set a one-click, "buy it now" price of about $125. It looked like a great deal for buyers. They could pay less than retail to end the auction immediately or place bids in the hope of fetching an even lower price.
But this is where eBay users fell prey to what Malmendier and her coauthor, Stanford University economist Hanh Lee, call "bidder's curse." Apparently, some bidders grew so enthusiastic about winning the auction that they lost sight of the "buy it now" price, sometimes offering more than $185.
"We found that in 43% of the auctions the bidders ended up paying more than the 'buy it now' price," Malmendier says.
"This is really huge. It's far more than I could have expected."
Why ecommerce is slowing down
The New York Times says that consumers are "internet fatigued," and as a result, ecommerce sales are slowing down. I'm betting the paper's headline interpretation ("some buyers grow web-weary") is only a small part of the story, and the Times mentions opinions more diverse than the headline suggests. I'd be interested in hearing whether credit card sales are down overall as consumers react to the unethical practices of credit card companies, who are finding any excuse to boost rates and lock consumers into spiraling debt. Online purchases are usually if not always by credit card; sane consumers have torn up their cards and are doing whatever they can to extricate themselves from the clutches of usurious corporations. [Link]
As gas prices and transactional expenses increase, independent gas station owners can no longer compete; they're shutting down. In fact, I can't think where there's an independent station in Austin. [Link]
Between Feb. 1 and Monday, Bartlett said, the average wholesale price paid by service stations in Milwaukee to buy gasoline rose from $1.66 to $2.94. Add in taxes paid to the federal and state governments, as well as transportation costs, and the average service station had to cover $3.47 on Monday, without charging any profit. On that day, stations were charging their customers $3.47 on average in Milwaukee, according to AAA's Daily Fuel Gauge Report.
Clean Tech Summit - loose notes
I spent some time today at the Clean Energy Venture Summit here in Austin (where Bruce will be empaneled tomorrow 'round noon), and I'm working on a post for Worldchanging about one session, on Utility of the Future (or electric grid of the future - smart energy). Luncheon keynote Dick Gephardt repeated one of his mantras, "Politics is a substitute for violence." He and Jim Woolsey, tag-teaming the keynote, had much to say about the relationship of energy to terrorism; Woolsey says we should remember, as we stand pumping gasoline, to look in the rearview mirror to see who's funding terrorists (i.e. we are, buy buying gasoline). The less we buy oil, he was saying, the less we empower terrorists to blow things up. Gephardt, when asked in q&a about the proposed plan to reduce the gas tax in Texas over the summer, said it was "pretty much lunacy" because we want to discourage gasoline consumption, not, pardon the pun, pump it up.
The talks at the conference were information-intense, and I need time to sort out my notes and post more (partly because I can barely read 'em - I was showing off my tiny scrawl and the conference, proud that I could pack so much info into a page, not quite getting that it's only information if it's readable).
I was called away to a meeting in the middle of a good talk about clean transportation; hope that's recorded somewhere. I'll be back at the conference tomorrow, late, but in time to see Bruce's session on "science vs science fiction of cleantech." It's a conversation including Matthew Nordan (though I'm not sure why Nordan's there, we thought it was going to be a solo. Maybe his focus on nano is the key.)
Google's portfolioGoogle's making strategic purchases to build out its portfolio. [Link] I would just add that this is a major driver for business development – i.e. many businesses, especially those built around relatively simple functionality (like Twitter), could only be profitable if acquired as an addition to a larger suite of services. Google is driving innovation by creating a pot of money to reward incubation, and by driving competitors to do the same.
This week I've been focused on business, Bootstrap, and sustainability. On the business side, I've been thinking about the reorganization of Polycot into two divisions – my division will be focused primarily on consulting and will work with strategic partners (including the other division) on development projects. The other division will be devoted to fairly large web development projects with Ruby on Rails as the platform. Both divisions will be working in the social media/online community space. On the consulting side, David Swedlow and I were discussing this week how we'll be focusing as much or more on the social aspect of the web as on technology.
The Austin-based Bootstrap Network is growing and evolving, and part of my role there is coordinating the online social network, working with Small World Labs, and evolving the online network's relationship to the physical social network(s). There's quite a bit to do to here. Bijoy, David Swedlow and I met with Michael Wilson of Small World Labs this week to clarify our relationship and process for coevolving the site with the organization.
Sustainability is popping up in various corners of my professional life as well as in avocational pursuits, like the work I'm doing editing Worldchanging Austin. I can't really talk about everything that's going on because it's not all fully baked, and some of it involves projects that other people are brewing that are still confidential. What I can say is that a sustainability economy is emerging and Austin is probably destined to be a significant hub of that economy and the community that forms within it. There are several organizations I want to work more with, including the Clean Energy Incubator (where I had more of a relationship earlier in the decade, when I was part of the Austin Clean Energy Initiative, and Flow, which I've been looking at for several months – check out the pdf with the Flow Ethos of Interaction and, if you know me, you'll understand why I'm interested. Nothing really new there, but there's never much new under the sun, where ideas are concerned – however execution is another matter.
Photo: One of the wildflower photos I shot near Inks Lake last weekend. I'm a sucker for Indian Blanket (though I confuse 'em with Indian Paintbrush, as when I named this jpg).